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And at least for a time, the rush-happy player has reason to believe he’ll get a better-than-average return on his bets and raises — not because he’s in the midst of a massive lucky streak, but because so many of his opponents will be convinced of his supernatural luck. Those opponents will be extra-intimidated by his wagers and as a consequence the rusher’s fold equity increases dramatically. But just like the overvalued stock with the stratospheric P/E ratio, the party can’t last forever. When the end comes, our formerly-fortunate player must be prepared tone down his loose-aggressive play pronto. marking cards poker
Or consider the poker player who has had great success with one particular type of play. He may be tempted to repeat that maneuver again and again, without fully taking into account how changing game conditions have affected the likely outcome. Bluffing is a prime example. If Butch the Bully bluffs Ned the Nit out of a large pot during a NL tournament, no doubt that would be an extremely gratifying experience for Butch. And since Ned is a nit, it’s perfectly understandable if Butch thinks he’ll be able to repeat the bluff with equal success later in the tournament. luminosu contact lenses
But Butch needs to be careful. Whether in poker or investing, the momentum created by previous success gives a false sense of security, an excessive sense of empowerment. If Butch thinks that all he has to do is shove a big pile of chips in Ned’s direction any time he wants to pull off another bluff, he may be in for a very rude awakening. All it takes is one failed bluff attempt to evaporate a huge chunk of Butch’s stack and potentially deep-six his tournament — and any number of factors can change an impressive bluff into a snapped-off disaster. What were the conditions of the original bluff and are they in place now? Maybe this time around Ned has a smaller stack and has committed too many of his chips to let go of the hand. Maybe Butch’s next bluff is a clumsy wager that comes out of nowhere and doesn’t match up with his betting on earlier streets, allowing Ned to figure out what he’s doing (Ned may be a nit, but he’s not stupid). Perhaps the community board isn’t threatening enough to make Ned fear a big hand. Or maybe Butch is missing the signs that Ned has a real hand this time.
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